Q:

Has anyone set up a prediction market on the ETH/USD price conditioned on a hardfork/softfork/nofork?

I know Vitalik has talked about using prediction markets as a way for community members to decide on forks.
There are basically 3 proposals that I've seen.

Hardfork to return all funds to the DAO
Softfork to freeze the stolen funds (but not return them)
Do not fork at all and let the thief keep their winnings

There are strong feelings for and against these proposals but I think the vast majority of people are arguing their side because they want Ethereum to continue to thrive.
If there were a prediction market that definitively showed that one of these proposals was better for the ETH/USD trading price, I would certainly switch to supporting that stance. Is this type of thing being done?

A:

We (Reality Keys)  had a couple of conversations with people interested in setting up these markets, and set ourselves up to provide signed data about whether there had been a fork or not at various dates.
Unfortunately the fork came up on us quite fast, so I don't think anybody has had time to get a market working. If it had taken a few weeks longer, I think it would have happened.
It might be useful for future forks for Ethereum to have a way to query whether a particular feature is enabled at a particular time, so you could call something like is_ethereum_feature_enabled("dao-hard-fork"), then you could do this without needing to trust an external data source.

