

Some Startup Opportunities Are Losers Today - borisfowler
http://www.caycon.com/blog/2011/06/some-startup-opportunities-are-losers-today/

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gamble
In at least two of these categories, (search and social networking) today's
market leaders started up during low points when nobody thought their was room
- or even demand - for another entrant.

Seriously, when Google was founded building yet another search engine was
considered slightly less cool and even less lucrative than developing a new
word processor for Windows.

Focusing on unoccupied niches or new markets is usually a bad strategy.
Businesses are like life; they find a way to occupy every habitable space.
There's usually a reason unoccupied niches are unoccupied. Being the first
into a new market is almost as bad. The business that establishes the market
is usually just providing a free lesson to potential competitors on what to
avoid. They tend to grow hidebound just as the market really takes off.

~~~
dpark
When Google launched, no one was even trying to do search anymore. For some
reason everyone thought that portals were going to be the big thing. Google
launched with something truly innovative that was a _massive_ improvement over
the incumbents.

When Facebook launched, the social network sites all bit, and everyone knew
it. MySpace was the big thing, but everyone over the age of 14 knew it was
unpleasant to use. Facebook came along and launched a different kind of site.
First, it was exclusive. Second, it wasn't about putting together a page that
looked like it belonged on Angelfire. It was about spending time connecting to
people you knew.

If you're going to try to launch in a space with long-established players, you
better have something damned impressive. e.g. There is no meaningful space for
small players in search. You either take a huge chunk of the market and put
yourself on the Forbes list, or you fold. If all you've got is another search
engine that's "as good" as Google, then don't bother. "As good" doesn't win
customers.

