Thomson

It’s a heck of a way to run a pre-election campaign. On the eve of an expected election, politicians usually spend their time playing up good news, downplaying the bad, shaking hands and kissing babies.

Polls miss mark — it'll be slim Tory majority

Photograph by: Chris Mikula
, Ottawa Citizen

OTTAWA — It takes a special kind of crazy to stand in a public square and loudly refute facts scientifically proven and obvious to all.

Think of the map-makers who continued to insist, against astronomical evidence, the world ended where sea serpents swam and cherubs broke wind. Imagine the nutcase who confronted astronaut Buzz Aldrin over his role in the massive conspiracy to fake the 1969 lunar landing. Or the solitary Japanese soldiers on Pacific islands who kept fighting the Second World War into the eight-track-tape era.

In the spirit of these holdouts, flat-earthers and moon-deniers, Talking Points refuses to accept the growing mass of polling data that presages the NDP forming the official opposition or, in some scenarios, the government.

So thin are resumes of NDP candidates in Quebec, so improvised is the party's ground game, that they simply cannot get out enough votes to support the current seat projections in Quebec.

We also think pollsters have again underestimated the ballot-box commitment of Conservative voters, as they did in 2008. The base, this time, is older, grumpier, frightened and more determined to vote than opposition supporters.

Here are my predictions for Monday, region by region. Riding-by-riding wild guesses are online at talkpos.wordpress.com.

ATLANTIC

With former Premier Danny Williams no longer a factor, the Conservatives will win back one seat from the Liberals in Newfoundland, with Fabian Manning recapturing his old riding of Avalon. In Nova Scotia, the Orange Crush will claim Liberal Michael Savage and elect New Democrat Robert Chisholm. Former Liberal cabinet minister Wayne Easter will fall to Tory Tim Ogilvie in P.E.I. Mulroney era cabinet minister Bernie Valcourt should skid past Jean Claude D'Amours in New Brunswick.

Conservatives 15 (+4), Liberals 12 (-5), NDP 5 (+1)

PRAIRIES

Voters' comfort with NDP governments has to be a factor in Saskatchewan, with New Democrats snatching two Tory seats. In Alberta, the Prague spring comes to an end as the Tory ground machine helps recapture Edmonton-Strathcona from the NDP. In Manitoba, expect the status quo, except in Winnipeg-North where New Democrat Rebecca Blaikie, daughter of Bill, should carry the day.

Conservatives 48 (-1), Liberals 2 (-1), NDP 6 (+2)

BRITISH COLUMBIA

Don't buy the prediction of massive sea-to-sky change on the Lower Mainland. The NDP will pick off Surrey North from Conservative Dona Cadman, but that will be the only gainer. Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh will hold Vancouver South. Green party leader Elizabeth May strikes out against a cabinet minister for a second time as Conservative Gary Lunn holds Saanich-Gulf Islands.

Conservatives 23 (+1), Liberals 4 (-1), NDP 9

QUEBEC

Was the orange crush that began in Quebec a hilarious piece of performance art perpetrated on pollsters? Yep. The NDP will have see a few breakthroughs: in Gatineau, Francoise Boivin should ride the wave to knock-off Blocquiste Richard Nadeau, and Nycole Turmel will upset Liberal Marcel Proulx. Despite weak poll numbers provincewide, we think the Tories will hold pat by dropping two seats and gaining two others held by the Bloc.

Conservatives 11, Liberals 12 (-2), NDP 5 (+4), Bloc 46 (-2), Ind. 1

ONTARIO

The outcome was foreshadowed by the pre-writ leak of the Conservatives' infamous "very ethnic" strategy to target multi-cultural ridings, mostly around Toronto. On Monday, this highly ironic use of long-form census data will pay off. Liberal casualties in the Greater Toronto Area will include Ruby Dhalla, Paul Szabo, Ken Dryden and Joe Volpe. Conservative c should dispatch Helena Guergis. Liberal David Bertschi should edge out Conservative Royal Galipeau in Ottawa-Orleans. But expect incumbents to win all other Ontario seats in the National Capital.