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..SYNOPSIS...A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPRTROUGH NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES/GRT BASIN TODAY WILL QUICKLYMOVE TO THE LWR GRTLKS AND OH VLY REGIONS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A SEPARATE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN POLAR BRANCH OVER THESRN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE OFF THE SERN COAST BY WEDNESDAYAFTN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE PACNW COAST REGION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO LEAD UPPERTROUGH WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE UPPERMS VALLEY INTO ERN ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWDTHROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MORE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS ANDMIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY. TSTM PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE CONUS WILLREMAIN MINIMAL DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

..SRN FL PENINSULA...FRONT SETTLING SWD INTO CNTRL FL TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY LOSECHARACTER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDSWILL VEER WITH TIME AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARYLAYER. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OFCNTRL/SRN FL...DURING PEAK HEATING. BUT...FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBITPOOR LAPSE RATES...PARTICULARLY ABOVE H7. THEREFORE...IT IS NOTLIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL RESULT AND THE PREVIOUS GENERAL TSTM OTLK HASBEEN REMOVED.

..PAC NW...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVEELEMENTS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN ASSOCIATIONWITH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE MARGINALAND NO THUNDER AREA WILL BE DELINEATED.

.RACY.. 11/27/2007

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7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT EASTON SINCE MONDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 2170 FT.

&&

$$

JAS

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..SYNOPSIS...A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THISMORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER NRN NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND BY THISEVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS ACCOMPANIEDTHIS COMPACT SYSTEM INVOF UPPER MI...AND A COUPLE OF LIGHTNINGSTRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER WITH LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONGTHE NW LOWER MI SHORE. AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULEDOUT TODAY ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF LAKEHURON...AND PERHAPS OVER LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING...BUTLIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ISTOO LOW TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA.

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THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEETCATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION. THANK YOU TO ALL THE OBSERVERS THAT CALLED IN THE REPORTS.

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ONE PINE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN BETWEEN GLENNVILLE AND REIDSVILLE ON HIGHWAY 23 SOUTH.

&&

$$

JRJ

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UP TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL AT MARIAS PASS...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON HIGHWAY 2.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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..FL...SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING SWD INTO NRN FL WILL LIKELY STALL AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THEPERIOD IN WAKE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTING NEWD INTOTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NARROW AREA OF MUCAPE AT TBW THIS MORNINGMAY SUPPORT SOME MOIST CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAKTHUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INTO THE EVENING.

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LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTINGTHAT EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON DAY 4 /FRI NOV30TH/ WILL PHASE WITH CUT-OFF LOW OFF BAJA CA WITH SYSTEM EJECTINGEWD IN PIECES INTO THE PLAINS ON DAYS 5 AND 6 /SAT AND SUN DEC 1STAND 2ND/. THEREAFTER...LARGER-SCALE TROUGH FORMATION IS FORECAST TOOCCUR OVER ERN N AMERICA. A RATHER WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW ISEXPECTED BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THISFEATURE DEVELOPING FROM THE CNTRL OR SRN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING INTOTHE GREAT LAKES OR NERN STATES BY MONDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINSAND GULF COAST STATES.

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LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOWREGIME WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NERNSTATES AND FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. IN THE LOWLEVELS...LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL BUILDEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THECNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOPGENERALLY SEWD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALONG COLDFRONT SURGING OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA AND DEEP S TX...AIRMASS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY. SOME THUNDER WILL BEPOSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD OFF THE COAST OF THE SERN FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...NO TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

.MEAD.. 11/27/2007

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PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THREEPERIOD...FEATURING STRONG UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THENRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE TNVALLEY. MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG SEWD INTO THEPACIFIC NW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO LEAD UPPERTROUGH WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE UPPERMS VALLEY INTO ERN ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWDTHROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MORE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS ANDMIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY.

..SRN FL PENINSULA...

LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER WITH TIME OVER THEFL PENINSULA...SUPPORTING THE NWD ADVECTION OF A MOIST BOUNDARYLAYER AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE POOR AND THIS WILLEFFECTIVELY LIMIT MLCAPES TO 100-300 J/KG. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIONTHAT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW DUE TO WARMTEMPERATURES AROUND 500 MB. STILL...SOME OF THE MORE VIGOROUSUPDRAFTS MAY GROW DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNINGDEVELOPMENT...NAMELY ALONG THE COAST OF THE SERN PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANYCONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN ASSOCIATIONWITH COLD UPPER TROUGH. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL ANDNO THUNDER AREA WILL BE DELINEATED.

.MEAD.. 11/27/2007

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