
Agent-Based Modelling for Hospital Resource Allocation in Viral Crises - floodedhere
https://github.com/jetnew/COVID-Resource-Allocation-Simulator
======
MrK93
Having developed a discrete event simulator myself for my master's thesis I
can guarantee that the usefulness of tools like this one depends heavily on
the veracity and quality of the time parameters and the random distributions.

This one is a very cool exercise, but applicability is dubious.

Anyway, does anybody have any suggestion about job positions where the job
requires developing this kind of stuff (simulators, process optimization,
heuristics)? Being a fresh graduate in this time period is pretty bad, but
doesn't hurt to do some research on interesting job positions. I only see web
related job positions and "machine learning" job positions lately.

~~~
7thaccount
If you're interested in MIP/LP optimization models and have either AIMMS or
GAMS experience and either CPLEX or GUROBI knowledge, the vendors of most
power systems simulators probably have some openings. They're large codebases,
but actively saving billions annually in the US. The problems of unit
commitment and economic dispatch are well understood, but the business rules
framework is massive for all the US RTO/ISOs and is always changing.

~~~
MrK93
I have research experience with MIP/LP and GUROBI but didn't know about the
field of power systems simulations, so thanks for the suggestion!

~~~
7thaccount
No problem. Vendors are GE, Siemens, and ABB. I'm sure at least one is hiring.
They generally prefer some industry experience, but a Masters or PhD would
likely go far, especially with some research projects.

These models are amongst the most difficult out there as far as size and time
requirements. One of the founders of GUROBI got involved with the industry
recently to try to help some researchers speed things up.

If you want a decent example/starter model to analyze, there is a unit
commitment model someone made in Xpress that is free online if you Google for
it that shows the fundamental formulation although they are much larger in
practice.

~~~
MrK93
This paper?
[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269636462_Implement...](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269636462_Implementing_a_Unit_Commitment_Power_Market_Model_in_FICO_Xpress-
Mosel)

Amazing, thank you! Having a lot of time in my hands I could try to implement
it in some other environment.

~~~
7thaccount
This has the full link:

[https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.4504](https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.4504)

Unit commitment is the MIP problem that combines linear and integer
constraints and tries to determine the least cost set of units to bring online
for each hour of the day. Constraints include things like the minimum amount
of time the unit has to remain offline before being started up again, the
minimum amount of time it has to run once online, how fast it can move (ramp),
how much capacity it has..etc. You try to minimize the costs of starting up
the unit, the cost of the unit just being online, and energy costs. The
economic dispatch problem is much simpler and asks, with the set of units that
were given to me by unit commitment, where should I set each one. The
commitment problem runs the day ahead at hourly granularity for the next day
and is also run periodically throughout the day. The dispatch problem
generally runs every 5 minutes 24/7 365. There are also other constraints like
not burning down the transmission grid.

------
jetnew
Hi, I'm the creator of this project. Seems like someone shared it here. This
is a school project and a current work-in-progress, and I'm open to any
feedback available. The usefulness of a simulator is heavily dependent on how
well it approximates to reality, which I have yet to do. It is currently a
baseline experiment without any reference to current research on COVID-19, but
stay tuned as I'm working on it! And thanks for sharing :)

~~~
joemccall86
It sounds like you and I are thinking along the same line:
[https://github.com/joemccall86/cap5600-project2](https://github.com/joemccall86/cap5600-project2).

I am also taking AI this semester and was considering expanding upon something
like this for my masters' capstone project. The application of machine
learning to this type of situation is going to be very interesting to say the
least.

Just wanted to say good luck!

------
juskrey
Basically optimizations and "modelling" are the reason resource allocations
are total failure in the case of rare emergencies, like ongoing. You assume
the worst "one in a 1000 years" case, multiply by 2..10, depending on your
cash flow, and keep allocations up to date. Period.

And the simple truth again: you can't immediately allocate during a crisis.

------
coderthrow
I am modelling with American Community Survey complete raw data, physically in
Berkeley, California.. using PostGIS, python and an SEIR model; Urban Planning
background.. suggestions welcome

~~~
coderthrow
example output, US Persons by Age-Sex 50+ by Census Tract, nationwide.. exec.
time 1230 ms. local, no clouds

    
    
      -[ RECORD 221408 ]----+
      mtable_2_pkey         | 18744349
      geoid                 | 08000US361198400084000000900
      geo_name              | Census Tract 9, Yonkers city, 
      Yonkers city, Westchester County, New York
       Total_Population      | 2307
        Male                 | 1085
         male over 50 est.   | 285
        Female               | 1222
         female over 50 est. | 272
      -[ RECORD 221409 ]----+
      mtable_2_pkey         | 18754394
      geoid                 | 08000US421338704887048000900
      geo_name              | Census Tract 9, York city, York city, York County, Pennsylvania
       Total_Population      | 7100
        Male                 | 3934
         male over 50 est.   | 1453
        Female               | 3166
         female over 50 est. | 1347
       -[ RECORD 221410 ]----+
       mtable_2_pkey         | 18776479
       geoid                 | 14000US42133000900
       geo_name              | Census Tract 9, York County, 
       Pennsylvania
       Total_Population      | 1169
        Male                 | 667
         male over 50 est.   | 226
        Female               | 502
         female over 50 est. | 240

------
nrjames
If you find this interesting, check out Project Hospital on Steam:
[https://store.steampowered.com/app/868360/Project_Hospital/](https://store.steampowered.com/app/868360/Project_Hospital/)

