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Wait till people see that the Tesla isnt vaporware and they will be delivered on schedule. I think a lot of people are still hesitant to put down 5k but once they see them coming off the assembly line sales are going to sky rocket. At least, that's my prediction.

Cobos, I don't think Europe will be as big as the US. In spite of higher gas prices and much lower relative cost ( compared with other small sportcars) when taxes are included for Roadster, sales in Europe lag. The prototype has been shown here, not the alphas.

The economics of gas vs electricity are largely irrelevant at the $120k+ sportscar level.
However at $50k,$60k even $70k it is relevant because a $50k Model S is cheaper to own after 10 years than a car that costs half as much.
Even a $70k Model S is cheaper after 10 years than a car that cost much much less ( $45k midrange luxury car ).

It was a guess based on a bunch of things:
1) Tesla believes they can make a 56kWhr Roadster pack for less than $12k by 2016.
2) Replacing a Model S battery after 8 years puts you in 2020, 4 more years of improvement past 2016.
3) Elon Musk claiming an 8% improvement in batteries per year.
4) LG Chem CEO saying cell costs will decline four fold over the next10 years in 2010