Saturday, October 6, 2018

Islamic State Returns To Baghdad While Overall Security In Iraq Remains Steady

(Shafaaq News)

Overall security in Iraq has been unchanged since April
2018. However there has been a shift in Islamic State targets and a return of
suicide and car bombs in September.

There was an average of 7.0 incidents per day in September,
which matches the figure for April to September. For the third month Baghdad
led the country in incidents with 65.

Security
Incidents In Iraq By Province August-September 2018

Province

August

September

Anbar

11

17

Babil

3

5

Baghdad

58

65

Basra

4

4

Diyala

44

36

Dohuk

1

-

Irbil

1

1

Karbala

1

-

Kirkuk

32

31

KRG

7

11

Muthanna

1

-

Najaf

-

-

Ninewa

27

18

Qadisiya

-

-

Salahaddin

25

21

Sulaymaniya

1

1

Casualties
In Iraq By Province August-September 2018

Province

August

September

Anbar

70
(32 K, 38 W)

52
(15 K, 37 W)

Babil

6
(6 W)

9
(4 K, 5 W)

Baghdad

86
(32 K, 54 W)

101
(31 K, 70 W)

Basra

2
(1 K, 1 W)

2
(1 K, 1 W)

Diyala

49
(19 K, 30 W)

50
(17 K, 33 W)

Dohuk

1
(1 K)

-

Irbil

-

3
(3 K)

Kirkuk

39
(13 K, 26 W)

60
(33 K, 27 W)

KRG

32
(30 K, 2 W)

38
(34 K, 4 W)

Muthanna

1
(1 W)

-

Ninewa

69
(51 K, 18 W)

98
(77 K, 21 W)

Salahaddin

103
(45 K, 58 W)

100
(24 K, 76 W)

There were 253 deaths and 321 wounded in September. 58
bodies were uncovered from the rubble in Mosul during the month, just over one
year after the city was liberated. That left 195 violent deaths, 144 of which
were due to the insurgency.

The insurgents appear to be returning to some of their old
haunts. For the last two months, incidents have been going up in Anbar from an
average of 0.2 per day in July to 0.3 to 0.5 in September. Those are still
miniscule figures, but the types of attacks changed as well. For example, there
were two suicide bombings in the province, the first since April. It is yet to
be seen whether this is a real change or not.

Another worrisome trend is an increase in violence in
Baghdad. Since June incidents have slowly climbed back up from an average of
1.1 to 1.5 in July to 1.8 in August and 2.1 in September. These attacks remain
routine such as shootings and IEDs, and are mostly concentrated in the outer southern
and northern regions of the province. Still, IS attempting to penetrate the
largest urban area of the country is not a good sign.

In the middle of the year there was a surge of attacks in
central Iraq, but that has since fallen off. In Diyala, incidents reached 1.7
per day in June only to see them fall since to 1.2 in September. In Kirkuk,
there were 1.8 incidents in June before dropping to 1.0 in August and
September. Likewise, in Salahaddin there were 1.4 incidents in June, but then
0.7-0.8 from July to September. That doesn’t mean IS has fallen off in its
rebuilding. Rather there are more and more reports of people fleeing villages
in rural areas such as the Khanaqin district in northeast Diyala, towns being
attacked, taxes being collected, areas being no go zones for the security
forces at night, and militants openly being seen during the day. This is
despite constant sweeps by the security forces, but they have been largely
ineffective. The main problem is that there is not much government presence in
many of these rural areas, and the population is getting intimidated and not
providing good intelligence.

Islamic
State Activity in Central Iraq 2018

Diyala

Shootings

(Totals)

IEDs/

Sticky Bombs

(Totals)

Gun Battles

Attacks on Checkpoints

Attacks on Mukhtars/

Sheikhs

Kidnappings

Attacks on Towns

Mortars

Suicide Bombers

Car Bombs

Jan

20

24

2

7

-

1

-

6

1

1

Feb

14

13

4

3

-

-

-

-

1

-

Mar

29

21

14

5

1

2

1

5

-

-

Apr

13

18

2

2

-

-

-

2

-

-

May

11

11

1

3

1

1

3

4

1

-

Jun

32

17

5

12

-

1

5

4

-

-

Jul

20

19

2

3

-

2

3

1

-

-

Aug

17

18

2

2

1

1

3

3

-

-

Sep

20

12

5

1

-

2

5

5

-

-

Kirkuk

Shootings

(Totals)

IEDs/

Sticky Bombs

(Totals)

Gun Battles

Attacks on Checkpoints

Attacks on Mukhtars/

Sheikhs

Kidnappings

Attacks on Towns

Mortars/

Rockets

Suicide Bombers

Car Bombs

Jan

13

6

4

1

-

-

-

3

3

1

Feb

21

10

7

3

-

-

-

4

1

-

Mar

22

15

11

2

-

2

1

3

1

1

Apr

18

4

3

1

-

-

8

1

-

1

May

14

28

2

-

2

1

1

4

4

-

Jun

25

12

4

2

-

2

10

6

-

-

Jul

7

20

1

2

-

-

-

-

-

1

Aug

7

20

2

1

2

-

-

2

-

1

Sep

14

25

2

2

1

3

4

2

-

-

Salahaddin

Shootings

(Totals)

IEDs/

Sticky Bombs

(Totals)

Gun Battles

Attacks on Checkpoints

Attacks on Mukhtars/

Sheikhs

Kidnappings

Attacks on Towns

Mortars/

Rockets

Suicide Bombers

Car Bombs

Jan

11

9

8

-

-

-

-

2

-

1

Feb

7

5

1

1

-

2

-

-

-

-

Mar

23

8

9

2

-

3

-

-

1

-

Apr

6

8

2

2

-

-

-

-

1

-

May

14

10

10

1

1

-

-

1

1

-

Jun

15

15

4

1

-

7

-

-

-

1

Jul

9

6

-

4

-

-

2

1

1

-

Aug

9

15

1

3

-

1

1

1

1

-

Sep

5

10

1

1

-

-

1

1

3

1

(Gun Battles, Attacks on
Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total
number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Incidents continued to fall off in Ninewa. In January there
was an average of 1.1 incidents per day, but since April there has been less
than one per day with just 0.4 in September. There are some infiltration
attempts from Syria and attacks upon local officials, but this governorate is
no longer a main front.

Along with the renewed incidents in Anbar and Baghdad, the
Islamic State also restarted mass casualty bombings. In September there were 8
suicide and car bombs, the most since May. Before that there were only 1 in June
2 in July and 3 in August. These all occurred in Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa and
Salahaddin. It is another sign that IS is becoming bolder and regrouping.

Kurdistan had a total of 13 incidents. In Sulaymaniya, Iran
hit the headquarters of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan
leaving 61 casualties. Turkey had 10 air strikes killing 37 PKK members. An IED
planted by that group left 1 Turkish soldier dead and 4 wounded. Tehran has
been targeting Kurdish groups off and on for several weeks now. Ankara on the
other hand, has been striking the PKK nearly every week.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com