Country Forecast Belgium February 2018 Updater

February 2018

ID: 5300733

Summary

Table of Contents

Search Inside

The four-party centre-right government which took office in October 2014 is dominated by Flemish parties and for the first time includes the separatist New-Flemish Alliance (N-VA). The government's fiscal consolidation and reform agenda will continue to cause conflict between the coalition partners, but The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the coalition to remain broadly stable and effective and to serve its full term to 2019.

We expect Belgium to remain a single state over the medium term. The N-VA agreed to pursue economic reform rather than devolution when it joined the current parliament, and its campaign platform for the 2019 election is focused on security, identity and the economy rather than Flemish autonomy. In the longer term it may press for consensus on building a confederal state.

We expect the budget deficit to narrow slowly, with tax revenue picking up as economic growth stays robust. We estimate a 1.7% of GDP shortfall in 2017, narrowing from 2.5% in 2016, but consolidation will slow as the 2019 elections approach. Public debt will decline only gradually, reaching 100% of GDP in 2022, but bond spreads suggest that investors view the sovereign as fairly safe, reflecting in part a strongly positive net external asset position.

Government wage moderation measures in 2013-16 and a modest shift in the tax burden from labour to consumption last year have improved Belgium's competitiveness vis-à-vis its regional peers. However, poor productivity trends in some sectors will hold back longer-term growth rates, as will population ageing, with the working-age population expected to decline from 2021, and a comparatively inefficient allocation of resources given low entrepreneurship.

After 1.7% growth in 2017 we expect 1.5% average annual real GDP growth in 2018-19 as modest labour market tightening and a recovery of consumer confidence combine with a cyclical upswing in the euro zone and low interest rates support investment spending. In 2020-22 we forecast average annual growth of 1.2% as the economy slows towards its long-term trend growth rate.

The external environment is likely to present headwinds to growth. We forecast a mild cyclical downturn in the US in 2020 and less attractive trade relations with the UK-Belgium's fourth-largest export market-after Brexit.

Annual consumer price inflation (EU harmonised measure) averaged 2.2% in 2017, mainly driven by energy price base effects. We forecast a slowdown to 1.7% price growth in 2018 as an electricity tax introduced in 2015 is phased out and the rise in the oil price moderates. We expect 1.9% average annual inflation in 2019-22, bringing price growth closer into line with the euro zone average.

Our reports have been used by over 10K customers, including:

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts

150+ Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets

More than 25,000 trusted sources

Single User License — provides access to the report by one individual.

Department License — allows you to share the report with up to 5 users

Site License — allows the report to be shared amongst all employees in a defined country

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

We were impressed with the support that ReportLinker’s research specialists’ team provided. The report we purchased was useful and provided exactly what we want.

Category Manager at Ikea

ReportLinker gave access to reliable and useful data while avoiding dispersing resources and spending too much time on unnecessary research.

Executive Director at PwC Advisory

The customer service was fast, responsive, and 100% professional in all my dealings (...) If we have more research needs, I'll certainly prioritize working with ReportLinker!

Scott Griffith

Vice President Marketing at Maurice Sporting Goods

The research specialist provided prompt, helpful instructions for accessing ReportLinker's product. He also followed up to make sure everything went smoothly and to ensure an easy transition to the next stage of my research

Jessica P Huffman

Research Associate at American Transportation Research Institute

Excellent customer service. Very responsive and fast.

Director, Corporate Strategy at Ingredion

I reached out to ReportLinker for a detailed market study on the Air Treatment industry. The quality of the report, the research specialist’s willingness to solve my queries exceeded my expectations. I would definitely recommend ReportLinker for in-depth industry information.

Mariana Mendoza

Global Platform Senior Manager at Whirlpool Corporation

Thanks! I like what you've provided and will certainly come back if I need to do further research works.

Bee Hin Png

CEO at LDR Pte Ltd

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

FAQ

How we can help

I am not sure if the report I am interested in will fulfill my needs. Can you help me?

I have had negative experiences with market research reports before. How can you avoid this from happening again?

We advise all clients to read the TOC and Summary and list your questions so that we can get more insight for you before you make any purchase decision. A research advisor will accompany you so that you can compare samples and reports from different sources, and choose the study that is right for you.

Report Delivery

How and when I will receive my Report?

Most reports are delivered right away in a pdf format, while others are accessed via a secure link and access codes. Do note that sometimes reports are sent within a 12 hour period, depending on the time zones. However, you can contact us to escalate this. Should you need a hard copy, you can check if this option is offered for the particular report, and pay the related fees.

Payment conditions

What payment methods do you accept?

Credit card : VISA, American Express, Mastercard, or

You can download an invoice to pay by wire transfer, check, or via a Purchase Order from your company, or

You can pay via a Check made out in US Dollars, Euros, or British Pounds for the full amount made payable to ReportLinker

What are ReportLinker’s Payment Terms?

All payments must normally be submitted within 30 days. However, you can let us know if you need extended time.

Are Taxes and duties included?

All companies based in France must pay a 20% tax per report. The same applies to all individuals based in the EU. All EU companies must supply their VAT number when purchasing to avoid this charge.

I’m not satisfied. Can I be refunded?

No. Once your order has been processed and the publisher has received a notification to send you the report, we cannot issue any refund or cancel any order. As these are not ‘traditional’ products that can be returned, reports that are dispatched are considered to be ‘consumed’.

User license

The license that you should acquire depends on the number of persons that need to access the report. This can range from Single User (only one person will have the right to read or access the report), or Department License (up to 5 persons), to Site License (a group of persons based in the same company location), or Corporate License (the entire company personnel based worldwide). However, as publishers have different terms and conditions, we can look into this for you.