Ahead of make-or-break political contests, it pays to be cautious when political operatives materialise bearing internal party polling. Often these sorties are exercises in massaging voter expectations or manufacturing impressions to influence an outcome.

Having declared the necessary note of caution, let’s work through the known knowns about the contest everyone is currently watching: Scott Morrison’s battle to hold Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat of Wentworth in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, and the government’s majority in the lower house.