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Nov 10

Libra: Efficient Resource Management for Agentic RL Post-Training

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a standard post-training paradigm for shaping large language models (LLMs) into capable agents. In agentic RL, the rollout stage generates trajectories while invoking tools, producing long-tailed and non-stationary workloads that expose two fundamental challenges in resource management. First, due to the long-tail distribution, a small fraction of trajectories dominates rollout makespan. Second, rollout and training are subject to cross-stage imbalance, as they exhibit strong asymmetry in compute patterns, memory demands, and sensitivity to sequence length. Compounding this asymmetry, the sequence length distribution drifts continuously as the policy evolves, rendering any static resource split progressively suboptimal. We present Libra, a resource management system to address both challenges via two core mechanisms. The first is a global resource planner that jointly optimizes GPU allocation across rollout and training clusters. It leverages an elastic hybrid pool to enable lightweight, non-blocking worker reallocation between stages. The second is a causality-driven multi-level feedback queue (C-MLFQ) scheduler, which routes requests to heterogeneous rollout buckets based on causal signals derived from tool-return outcomes, rather than relying on fragile length predictions. Evaluated on 48 A800 GPUs, Libra achieves up to 3.0x higher throughput and converges up to 2.5x faster in reward compared to the baselines.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 9

UniMoE-Audio: Unified Speech and Music Generation with Dynamic-Capacity MoE

Recent advances in unified multimodal models indicate a clear trend towards comprehensive content generation. However, the auditory domain remains a significant challenge, with music and speech often developed in isolation, hindering progress towards universal audio synthesis. This separation stems from inherent task conflicts and severe data imbalances, which impede the development of a truly unified audio generation model. To address this challenge, we propose UniMoE-Audio, a unified speech and music generation model within a novel Dynamic-Capacity Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework. Architecturally, UniMoE-Audio introduces a Top-P routing strategy for dynamic expert number allocation, and a hybrid expert design comprising routed experts for domain-specific knowledge, shared experts for domain-agnostic features, and null experts for adaptive computation skipping. To tackle data imbalance, we introduce a three-stage training curriculum: 1) Independent Specialist Training leverages original datasets to instill domain-specific knowledge into each "proto-expert" without interference; 2) MoE Integration and Warmup incorporates these specialists into the UniMoE-Audio architecture, warming up the gate module and shared expert using a subset of balanced dataset; and 3) Synergistic Joint Training trains the entire model end-to-end on the fully balanced dataset, fostering enhanced cross-domain synergy. Extensive experiments show that UniMoE-Audio not only achieves state-of-the-art performance on major speech and music generation benchmarks, but also demonstrates superior synergistic learning, mitigating the performance degradation typically seen in naive joint training. Our findings highlight the substantial potential of specialized MoE architecture and curated training strategies in advancing the field of universal audio generation. Homepage: https://mukioxun.github.io/Uni-MoE-site/home.html

HIT-TMG Lychee Team
·
Oct 15, 2025 3

Improving General Text Embedding Model: Tackling Task Conflict and Data Imbalance through Model Merging

Text embeddings are vital for tasks such as text retrieval and semantic textual similarity (STS). Recently, the advent of pretrained language models, along with unified benchmarks like the Massive Text Embedding Benchmark (MTEB), has facilitated the development of versatile general-purpose text embedding models. Advanced embedding models are typically developed using large-scale multi-task data and joint training across multiple tasks. However, our experimental analysis reveals two significant drawbacks of joint training: 1) Task Conflict: Gradients from different tasks interfere with each other, leading to negative transfer. 2) Data Imbalance: Disproportionate data distribution introduces biases that negatively impact performance across tasks. To overcome these challenges, we explore model merging-a technique that combines independently trained models to mitigate gradient conflicts and balance data distribution. We introduce a novel method, Self Positioning, which efficiently searches for optimal model combinations within the interpolation space of task vectors using stochastic gradient descent. Our experiments demonstrate that Self Positioning significantly enhances multi-task performance on the MTEB dataset, achieving an absolute improvement of 0.7 points. It outperforms traditional resampling methods while reducing computational costs. This work offers a robust approach to building generalized text embedding models with superior performance across diverse embedding-related tasks.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 19, 2024

Rethinking the Bias of Foundation Model under Long-tailed Distribution

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 27, 2025

A systematic study of the class imbalance problem in convolutional neural networks

In this study, we systematically investigate the impact of class imbalance on classification performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and compare frequently used methods to address the issue. Class imbalance is a common problem that has been comprehensively studied in classical machine learning, yet very limited systematic research is available in the context of deep learning. In our study, we use three benchmark datasets of increasing complexity, MNIST, CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, to investigate the effects of imbalance on classification and perform an extensive comparison of several methods to address the issue: oversampling, undersampling, two-phase training, and thresholding that compensates for prior class probabilities. Our main evaluation metric is area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) adjusted to multi-class tasks since overall accuracy metric is associated with notable difficulties in the context of imbalanced data. Based on results from our experiments we conclude that (i) the effect of class imbalance on classification performance is detrimental; (ii) the method of addressing class imbalance that emerged as dominant in almost all analyzed scenarios was oversampling; (iii) oversampling should be applied to the level that completely eliminates the imbalance, whereas the optimal undersampling ratio depends on the extent of imbalance; (iv) as opposed to some classical machine learning models, oversampling does not cause overfitting of CNNs; (v) thresholding should be applied to compensate for prior class probabilities when overall number of properly classified cases is of interest.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 15, 2017

Relax Within, Balance Across: Geometry-Guided Load Balancing for Vision-Language Mixture-of-Experts

Vision-language MoE batches contain different numbers of image and text tokens. Image resolution, image count, tiling, and prompt length all change this token mix. We call the standard token-level Switch auxiliary loss Std-Aux. Std-Aux balances only the mixed load, so large image and text load errors can cancel at one mix. On our main model, the same trained router shows more than a fivefold change in load imbalance across image resolutions. We hold the image and text load profiles fixed and derive the exact load curve as the token mix varies. The image-text load gap controls sensitivity to the token mix. Physical preprocessing can also change the conditional profiles. The fixed-profile law excludes such changes. To design a remedy, we examine the router input structure. Image and text occupy distinct regions, while visual tokens group strongly by source image. The modality boundary motivates separate image and text terms. The image boundary motivates one equal-weight routing instance per image. ReBA, or Relax Within, Balance Across, implements both choices. Across four split backbones, ReBA lowers load on every reported benchmark input while keeping mean task accuracy comparable to Std-Aux. ReBA also lowers average load over the tested range and worst physical load under resolution and tiling shifts. Code is available at https://github.com/ZiangWu-77/ReBA.

Breast Tumor Classification Using EfficientNet Deep Learning Model

Precise breast cancer classification on histopathological images has the potential to greatly improve the diagnosis and patient outcome in oncology. The data imbalance problem largely stems from the inherent imbalance within medical image datasets, where certain tumor subtypes may appear much less frequently. This constitutes a considerable limitation in biased model predictions that can overlook critical but rare classes. In this work, we adopted EfficientNet, a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network (CNN) model that balances high accuracy with computational cost efficiency. To address data imbalance, we introduce an intensive data augmentation pipeline and cost-sensitive learning, improving representation and ensuring that the model does not overly favor majority classes. This approach provides the ability to learn effectively from rare tumor types, improving its robustness. Additionally, we fine-tuned the model using transfer learning, where weights in the beginning trained on a binary classification task were adopted to multi-class classification, improving the capability to detect complex patterns within the BreakHis dataset. Our results underscore significant improvements in the binary classification performance, achieving an exceptional recall increase for benign cases from 0.92 to 0.95, alongside an accuracy enhancement from 97.35 % to 98.23%. Our approach improved the performance of multi-class tasks from 91.27% with regular augmentation to 94.54% with intensive augmentation, reaching 95.04% with transfer learning. This framework demonstrated substantial gains in precision in the minority classes, such as Mucinous carcinoma and Papillary carcinoma, while maintaining high recall consistently across these critical subtypes, as further confirmed by confusion matrix analysis.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 26, 2024

Beyond Classification: A Cough Regression Benchmark for Respiratory Acoustic Foundation Models

Respiratory acoustic foundation models (FMs) excel at cough classification, yet their ability to predict continuous health quantities from cough audio remains largely unexplored, despite the clinical value of passive age, BMI, and disease probability estimation in settings where physical measurements are unavailable. We introduce the multi-model, multi-target cough regression benchmark evaluating five FMs (OPERA-CT, OPERA-CE, OPERA-GT, HeAR, M2D+Resp) across six targets on three datasets under subject-disjoint protocols, comparing linear, MLP-small, and full MLP regression heads. MLP-small beats the mean-predictor baseline on all tasks and linear probing in 23 of 30 model x task cases, with full MLP overfitting on small clinical data but recovering on larger sets, revealing a dataset size x head-capacity trade-off. HeAR leads within-dataset age regression on Coswara (9.12 yr MAE); its CIDRZ result is excluded from headline claims owing to possible HeAR-CIDRZ pretraining overlap. OPERA-GT is favored over OPERA-CT on age in all three datasets, with the CIDRZ margin within seed variance, extending a generative-pretraining advantage from breath to cough. HeAR and M2D+Resp reach near-full performance at N = 50 samples while OPERA models require N = 400. Cross-dataset transfer is strongly asymmetric as large diverse data generalises to small clinical populations (CoughVID to CIDRZ: -0.17 yr) but not vice versa (CIDRZ to Coswara: +2.43 yr, +26.6%).

Red Blood Cell Segmentation with Overlapping Cell Separation and Classification on Imbalanced Dataset

Automated red blood cell (RBC) classification on blood smear images helps hematologists to analyze RBC lab results in a reduced time and cost. However, overlapping cells can cause incorrect predicted results, and so they have to be separated into multiple single RBCs before classifying. To classify multiple classes with deep learning, imbalance problems are common in medical imaging because normal samples are always higher than rare disease samples. This paper presents a new method to segment and classify RBCs from blood smear images, specifically to tackle cell overlapping and data imbalance problems. Focusing on overlapping cell separation, our segmentation process first estimates ellipses to represent RBCs. The method detects the concave points and then finds the ellipses using directed ellipse fitting. The accuracy from 20 blood smear images was 0.889. Classification requires balanced training datasets. However, some RBC types are rare. The imbalance ratio of this dataset was 34.538 for 12 RBC classes from 20,875 individual RBC samples. The use of machine learning for RBC classification with an imbalanced dataset is hence more challenging than many other applications. We analyzed techniques to deal with this problem. The best accuracy and F1-score were 0.921 and 0.8679, respectively, using EfficientNet-B1 with augmentation. Experimental results showed that the weight balancing technique with augmentation had the potential to deal with imbalance problems by improving the F1-score on minority classes, while data augmentation significantly improved the overall classification performance.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 2, 2020

LLM-EDT: Large Language Model Enhanced Cross-domain Sequential Recommendation with Dual-phase Training

Cross-domain Sequential Recommendation (CDSR) has been proposed to enrich user-item interactions by incorporating information from various domains. Despite current progress, the imbalance issue and transition issue hinder further development of CDSR. The former one presents a phenomenon that the interactions in one domain dominate the entire behavior, leading to difficulty in capturing the domain-specific features in the other domain. The latter points to the difficulty in capturing users' cross-domain preferences within the mixed interaction sequence, resulting in poor next-item prediction performance for specific domains. With world knowledge and powerful reasoning ability, Large Language Models (LLMs) partially alleviate the above issues by performing as a generator and an encoder. However, current LLMs-enhanced CDSR methods are still under exploration, which fail to recognize the irrelevant noise and rough profiling problems. Thus, to make peace with the aforementioned challenges, we proposed an LLMs Enhanced Cross-domain Sequential Recommendation with Dual-phase Training ({LLM-EDT}). To address the imbalance issue while introducing less irrelevant noise, we first propose the transferable item augmenter to adaptively generate possible cross-domain behaviors for users. Then, to alleviate the transition issue, we introduce a dual-phase training strategy to empower the domain-specific thread with a domain-shared background. As for the rough profiling problem, we devise a domain-aware profiling module to summarize the user's preference in each domain and adaptively aggregate them to generate comprehensive user profiles. The experiments on three public datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed LLM-EDT. To ease reproducibility, we have released the detailed code online at {https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LLM-EDT-583F}.

  • 9 authors
·
Nov 25, 2025

Improving Multimodal Learning via Imbalanced Learning

Multimodal learning often encounters the under-optimized problem and may perform worse than unimodal learning. Existing approaches attribute this issue to imbalanced learning across modalities and tend to address it through gradient balancing. However, this paper argues that balanced learning is not the optimal setting for multimodal learning. With bias-variance analysis, we prove that imbalanced dependency on each modality obeying the inverse ratio of their variances contributes to optimal performance. To this end, we propose the Asymmetric Representation Learning(ARL) strategy to assist multimodal learning via imbalanced optimization. ARL introduces auxiliary regularizers for each modality encoder to calculate their prediction variance. ARL then calculates coefficients via the unimodal variance to re-weight the optimization of each modality, forcing the modality dependence ratio to be inversely proportional to the modality variance ratio. Moreover, to minimize the generalization error, ARL further introduces the prediction bias of each modality and jointly optimizes them with multimodal loss. Notably, all auxiliary regularizers share parameters with the multimodal model and rely only on the modality representation. Thus the proposed ARL strategy introduces no extra parameters and is independent of the structures and fusion methods of the multimodal model. Finally, extensive experiments on various datasets validate the effectiveness and versatility of ARL. Code is available at https://github.com/shicaiwei123/ICCV2025-ARL{https://github.com/shicaiwei123/ICCV2025-ARL}

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025

TAT: Task-Adaptive Transformer for All-in-One Medical Image Restoration

Medical image restoration (MedIR) aims to recover high-quality medical images from their low-quality counterparts. Recent advancements in MedIR have focused on All-in-One models capable of simultaneously addressing multiple different MedIR tasks. However, due to significant differences in both modality and degradation types, using a shared model for these diverse tasks requires careful consideration of two critical inter-task relationships: task interference, which occurs when conflicting gradient update directions arise across tasks on the same parameter, and task imbalance, which refers to uneven optimization caused by varying learning difficulties inherent to each task. To address these challenges, we propose a task-adaptive Transformer (TAT), a novel framework that dynamically adapts to different tasks through two key innovations. First, a task-adaptive weight generation strategy is introduced to mitigate task interference by generating task-specific weight parameters for each task, thereby eliminating potential gradient conflicts on shared weight parameters. Second, a task-adaptive loss balancing strategy is introduced to dynamically adjust loss weights based on task-specific learning difficulties, preventing task domination or undertraining. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed TAT achieves state-of-the-art performance in three MedIR tasks--PET synthesis, CT denoising, and MRI super-resolution--both in task-specific and All-in-One settings. Code is available at https://github.com/Yaziwel/TAT.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 16, 2025 1

CompDiff: Hierarchical Compositional Diffusion for Fair and Zero-Shot Intersectional Medical Image Generation

Generative models are increasingly used to augment medical imaging datasets for fairer AI, yet a key assumption often goes unexamined: that generators produce equally high-quality images across demographic groups. Models trained on imbalanced data inherit these imbalances, degrading synthesis for rare subgroups and struggling with intersections absent from training: the imbalanced generator problem. Remedies such as loss reweighting operate at the optimization level and provide limited benefit when training signal is scarce or absent. We propose CompDiff, a hierarchical compositional diffusion framework that addresses this at the representation level. A dedicated Hierarchical Conditioner Network (HCN) decomposes demographic conditioning into single-attribute, pairwise, and composed representations, producing a demographic token concatenated with CLIP embeddings as cross-attention context. This structured factorization encourages parameter sharing across subgroups and supports compositional generalization to rare or unseen intersections. On chest X-rays (MIMIC-CXR) and fundus images (FairGenMed), CompDiff compares favorably against standard fine-tuning and FairDiffusion across image quality (FID 64.3 vs. 75.1), subgroup equity (ES-FID), and zero-shot intersectional generalization (up to 21% FID improvement on held-out intersections). Downstream classifiers trained on CompDiff data show improved AUROC and reduced demographic bias, suggesting that the architectural design of demographic conditioning is an important and underexplored factor in fair medical image generation. Code: https://github.com/mahmoudibrahim98/CompDiff.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 7 1

Benchmarking LLMs for Predictive Applications in the Intensive Care Units

With the advent of LLMs, various tasks across the natural language processing domain have been transformed. However, their application in predictive tasks remains less researched. This study compares large language models, including GatorTron-Base (trained on clinical data), Llama 8B, and Mistral 7B, against models like BioBERT, DocBERT, BioClinicalBERT, Word2Vec, and Doc2Vec, setting benchmarks for predicting Shock in critically ill patients. Timely prediction of shock can enable early interventions, thus improving patient outcomes. Text data from 17,294 ICU stays of patients in the MIMIC III database were scored for length of stay > 24 hours and shock index (SI) > 0.7 to yield 355 and 87 patients with normal and abnormal SI-index, respectively. Both focal and cross-entropy losses were used during finetuning to address class imbalances. Our findings indicate that while GatorTron Base achieved the highest weighted recall of 80.5%, the overall performance metrics were comparable between SLMs and LLMs. This suggests that LLMs are not inherently superior to SLMs in predicting future clinical events despite their strong performance on text-based tasks. To achieve meaningful clinical outcomes, future efforts in training LLMs should prioritize developing models capable of predicting clinical trajectories rather than focusing on simpler tasks such as named entity recognition or phenotyping.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 23, 2025

Predicting Rare Events by Shrinking Towards Proportional Odds

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

  • 2 authors
·
May 29, 2023

Fixing a Model That Learned Worse Cancer Means Lower Risk: Monotonic Constraints in Bladder Cancer Recurrence Prediction

Background and Objective: Clinicians expect recurrence risk to climb with cancer severity. In a UK multicentre trial, an unconstrained XGBoost model learnt that higher tumour stage and carcinoma in situ predicted lower recurrence risk, and discrimination, calibration, and SHAP were all blind to it. We developed a counterfactual testing framework to detect this inversion and a monotonic-constraint framework to remove it without hurting performance. Methods: BOXIT enrolled 472 patients with protocol-mandated cystoscopy across 51 UK sites (2007-2012); 435 had at least two years' follow-up (153 recurrences, 35.2%). We developed a counterfactual direction test and a monotonic-constraint correction, with constraint directions drawn from the EORTC and EAU risk systems, and evaluated both against unconstrained XGBoost and logistic regression on 18 predictors (seven directed) over 50 cross-validation folds. The test worsened each patient on one directed feature at a time to check whether risk fell; SHAP direction and calibration were also assessed. Key Findings and Limitations: Tumour stage and carcinoma in situ were associated with lower recurrence, opposite to medical intuition; the unconstrained model reversed carcinoma in situ counterfactuals in 90.2% of cases and stage in 74.3%. Discrimination (ΔAUC 0.005, p=0.47), calibration, and SHAP magnitude were all blind to the inversion. Monotonic constraints eliminated every violation at no cost to discrimination (0.723 vs 0.718) and outperformed EORTC (p=8.9e-16). Limitations: single trial, internal-external validation only. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: A model that had learned this inversion passed every conventional check. A counterfactual direction test, run as a single refit with pre-specified monotonic constraints, catches this failure at no cost to performance and should be routine before clinical deployment.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 30

DatasetEquity: Are All Samples Created Equal? In The Quest For Equity Within Datasets

Data imbalance is a well-known issue in the field of machine learning, attributable to the cost of data collection, the difficulty of labeling, and the geographical distribution of the data. In computer vision, bias in data distribution caused by image appearance remains highly unexplored. Compared to categorical distributions using class labels, image appearance reveals complex relationships between objects beyond what class labels provide. Clustering deep perceptual features extracted from raw pixels gives a richer representation of the data. This paper presents a novel method for addressing data imbalance in machine learning. The method computes sample likelihoods based on image appearance using deep perceptual embeddings and clustering. It then uses these likelihoods to weigh samples differently during training with a proposed Generalized Focal Loss function. This loss can be easily integrated with deep learning algorithms. Experiments validate the method's effectiveness across autonomous driving vision datasets including KITTI and nuScenes. The loss function improves state-of-the-art 3D object detection methods, achieving over 200% AP gains on under-represented classes (Cyclist) in the KITTI dataset. The results demonstrate the method is generalizable, complements existing techniques, and is particularly beneficial for smaller datasets and rare classes. Code is available at: https://github.com/towardsautonomy/DatasetEquity

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 18, 2023

FlowBalance: Verifier-Grounded Self-Improvement from On-Policy Reasoning Experience

A reasoning model can improve from its own on-policy experience, but this inner loop is fragile: terminal verifiers provide reliable yet sparse supervision, while dense same-model guidance can reinforce false confidence or overconcentrate learning on a narrow solution mode. We introduce FlowBalance, a verifier-grounded self-improvement method that learns a normalized distribution over complete responses. For each on-policy trajectory, a frozen training-time view of the same policy uses privileged context to produce token-level log-probability gains, which are aggregated into a trajectory-level self-guidance score. FlowBalance calibrates this score with the verifier-derived group advantage: guidance is retained on positive-advantage trajectories, reversed on negative-advantage trajectories, and disabled when the rollout group provides no outcome preference. The resulting energy exponentially reweights a reference policy, and profiled trajectory balance fits the normalized target with one log-partition estimate per rollout group. This realizes outcome-calibrated self-guidance via trajectory balance, without a separate token-level imitation loss. Our analysis establishes within-group contrast preservation, a minimum-change reverse-KL characterization, monotonic verifier control of target reward, and an exact correction against false-positive self-guidance on rejected responses. On mathematical reasoning, FlowBalance improves average performance over FlowRL on both Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B, while also improving training speed and stability, avoiding direct OPSD's response-length collapse, and exhibiting higher correct-strategy diversity in a controlled AIME24 diagnostic.

When to Align, When to Predict: A Phase Diagram for Multimodal Learning

Cross-modal alignment (CA) and cross-modal prediction (CP) are the dominant paradigms for multimodal representation learning, yet there is no systematic understanding of when each succeeds, when each fails, and when cross-modal training helps at all -- a gap that leaves practitioners, especially in scientific domains like biomedicine or astrophysics, with heterogeneous instruments and multiple levels of organization and measurement, unable to diagnose why standard methods underperform the best single modality. We develop a unified linear framework that addresses both questions. Under a spiked signal-plus-noise model with structured cross-modal nuisance correlation, we derive separation ratios for both objectives that expose complementary failure modes: alignment whitens each modality and fails when nuisance is strongly correlated across views; prediction encodes whatever is cross-predictable through a one-sided whitening, with recovery governed by source-modality quality. The resulting phase diagram partitions multimodal problems into four regimes: Both, CA only, CP only, and Neither. We present a data-driven procedure to locate real-world datasets in this diagram using a small labeled subsample, identifying the preferred objective and prediction direction before any cross-modal training. Experiments on synthetic data, stereo-vision benchmarks, image-caption pairs, and real astrophysical data validate the predictions in the nonlinear regime, including the Neither regime where cross-modal training is actively harmful. Our framework lets practitioners diagnose their multimodal problem and choose the right objective before committing to training. Code to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/IlayMalinyak/mm_align_vs_pred.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 9

CAST: A Cross-Asset State-Space Trading System for Drawdown Control in Stock Markets

Managing drawdown, the peak-to-trough decline in an investment portfolio's value, is a precondition for long-term survival in practical investment management. However, mainstream stock forecasting methods predominantly optimize returns or Sharpe ratios under the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. Real markets do not follow this assumption, triggering catastrophic drawdowns. We propose a cross-asset state-space trading system (CAST), consisting of two components: The predictor, Cross-Asset Collaborative Kalman Filter (CoKF), estimates each asset's latent state online, coupling all assets through their correlations and adaptively fusing multiple integrated-random-walk orders. The controller, Model Predictive Control (MPC), converts the predictor's forecast into trades, using forecast uncertainty as an explicit risk penalty that controls drawdown. We evaluate CAST on four real-world stock markets over a 15-year test window and show that it consistently occupies the return-drawdown Pareto frontier, achieving strong risk-adjusted performance while maintaining substantially lower maximum drawdown than competitive baselines. A stress test across crisis periods further demonstrates robust behavior under market shocks and distribution shift. Because the predictor and controller interact only through the predicted price path, both are plug-and-play, making CAST a modular, interpretable trading system. The code is available at https://github.com/FanBroWell/CAST

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 12

A Closer Look at AUROC and AUPRC under Class Imbalance

In machine learning (ML), a widespread adage is that the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) is a superior metric for model comparison to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for binary classification tasks with class imbalance. This paper challenges this notion through novel mathematical analysis, illustrating that AUROC and AUPRC can be concisely related in probabilistic terms. We demonstrate that AUPRC, contrary to popular belief, is not superior in cases of class imbalance and might even be a harmful metric, given its inclination to unduly favor model improvements in subpopulations with more frequent positive labels. This bias can inadvertently heighten algorithmic disparities. Prompted by these insights, a thorough review of existing ML literature was conducted, utilizing large language models to analyze over 1.5 million papers from arXiv. Our investigation focused on the prevalence and substantiation of the purported AUPRC superiority. The results expose a significant deficit in empirical backing and a trend of misattributions that have fuelled the widespread acceptance of AUPRC's supposed advantages. Our findings represent a dual contribution: a significant technical advancement in understanding metric behaviors and a stark warning about unchecked assumptions in the ML community. All experiments are accessible at https://github.com/mmcdermott/AUC_is_all_you_need.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 11, 2024

Law of the Weakest Link: Cross Capabilities of Large Language Models

The development and evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) have largely focused on individual capabilities. However, this overlooks the intersection of multiple abilities across different types of expertise that are often required for real-world tasks, which we term cross capabilities. To systematically explore this concept, we first define seven core individual capabilities and then pair them to form seven common cross capabilities, each supported by a manually constructed taxonomy. Building on these definitions, we introduce CrossEval, a benchmark comprising 1,400 human-annotated prompts, with 100 prompts for each individual and cross capability. To ensure reliable evaluation, we involve expert annotators to assess 4,200 model responses, gathering 8,400 human ratings with detailed explanations to serve as reference examples. Our findings reveal that, in both static evaluations and attempts to enhance specific abilities, current LLMs consistently exhibit the "Law of the Weakest Link," where cross-capability performance is significantly constrained by the weakest component. Specifically, across 58 cross-capability scores from 17 models, 38 scores are lower than all individual capabilities, while 20 fall between strong and weak, but closer to the weaker ability. These results highlight the under-performance of LLMs in cross-capability tasks, making the identification and improvement of the weakest capabilities a critical priority for future research to optimize performance in complex, multi-dimensional scenarios.

  • 17 authors
·
Sep 30, 2024 2