Philippines Typhoon Track Predictor
Multi-Scale Transformer + MoE for 3-18 hour tropical cyclone track forecasting.
Results
| Model | t+3h | t+6h | t+9h | t+12h | t+15h | t+18h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistence | 59.0 | 59.7 | 60.5 | 61.3 | 62.3 | 63.3 |
| Linear extrapolation | 13.3 | 17.7 | 22.0 | 25.3 | 28.9 | 32.1 |
| Transformer + MoE | 13.4 | 16.8 | 20.0 | 22.7 | 25.2 | 27.6 |
Key finding: beats linear extrapolation at all horizons beyond 9 hours.
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